Population Forecast – India & the World
India & Population
The exponential rise of population in India has been a matter of great concern for the past several decades. With the population rising steeply, we have to rethink several different aspects of administration in the nation. It creates a huge pressure on all the resources available. Therefore, we must make a proper population forecast, well in advance, to meet out the infrastructure and other needs.
In fact, the whole world needs to tackle the rising population. Experts have estimated that the world population reached the 7.8 billion mark in 2020. We should have in mind that it took 2,00,000 years for the human population to reach 1 billion mark, and it took just 200 more years to reach 7 billion.
A study conducted by the University of Washington has concluded that the world population will peak at 9.73 billion, in 2064. This is 36 years earlier than the 10.9 billion peak in 2100, estimated by a UN report 2019. However, the positive news about the study is that it has forecasted the world population to be 8.79 billion in 2100, which is 2.11 billion lesser than the earlier forecast.
Forecast for Indian Population
The study has also forecasted that the Indian population will peak at 1.64 billion in 2048, and will go down to 1.09 billion in 2100. India presently has 17.5% of the world’s population, which is second only to China which has 18% of the population.
Factors that affect population
TFR (Total Fertility Rate) refers to the average number of children a woman gives birth to. The population decline will occur when the TFR falls below 2.1 mark. Presently, the global TFR stands at 2.37 and is expected to fall by 1.66 in the year 2100. TFR in India has already gone below the 2.1 mark in 2018 and may fall to 1.29 by 2100.
The number of working-age adults (20-64 years) also influence the population in a country. India had 762 million working-age adults in 2017, and this expected to fall to 569 million in the year 2100. Yet, it will have the largest population in this category, across the globe.
India which is currently the seventh-largest nation in terms of GDP is expected to become the third-largest country in 2100. And, it will be with the second-largest net immigration.
As far as the global population is concerned, 23 nations including Japan, Thailand, Italy and Spain are predicted to have a population shrink of more than 50%.
Rise in population with an age of more than 80 years is another area of concern. In 2017, about 141 billion people worldwide were in this age group and the number is expected to go up to 866 million by 2100.
Hope the government starts acting on the population forecast for India. It needs to prepare for the future keeping in mind both the Indian population and the global population.
- India decadal growth rate map Planemad is licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0: "File:India decadal growth rate map.svg" by w:user:Planemad is licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0
- Current World Population: "Current World Population" by Digital Dreams is licensed under CC BY 2.0